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There is no turning back from this war

Release date: 2018-08-10

  Recently, Liaoning began to encourage the elderly to start their own businesses and reward the birth of a second child to combat the growing aging crisis. Will this be a rehearsal for the whole society?Aging is a soft knife that doesn't hurt when you cut it, but when you zoom in and aggregate the actions of individuals as a whole, you will understand that the whole of China is actually trying to cope with aging by saving houses。From the perspective of population crisis, the author makes a sharp interpretation of China's current economic and social dilemma, but there is no shortage of future expectations for the country。

I have a dream that we can make this place good, both in the natural and social environment Instead of trying to emigrate to another country。

After all, if I was born and raised here9.6 million square kilometers without shelter, where else in the world would there be shelter。


According to the Bureau of Statistics,The number of births in China in 2017 was 17.23 million, down 630,000 from 2016 and lower than the lower limit of 2,023 births predicted by the Health and Family Planning Commission in 2017.$20,000 is 3 million short。Among them, the birth population of second children is 8.83 million, and the first child is only 7.24 million.In 2015, we did not fully open the two-child policy, and the birth population has fallen in an avalanche。

Step back in time30 years, 1987, China born 2528.80,000 people, which is destined to be a birth peak, it is determined by China's previous birth peak in the 1960s, and determines the birth peak in 2016, more than 20 years later。After 1987, the number of births fell all the way to a low of less than 16 million in 2004-06, less than two-thirds of the peak。The future population will also emerge from this trend, and even without considering the already basement low fertility intention, according to the most optimistic estimates,In the futureWithin seven years, the number of births will fall below 10 million and will be overtaken by the number of deaths, entering a long period of negative population growth。

The consequences of the birth slump were not immediately apparent, but the pain of the population peak was。Due to the traditional Chinese zodiac concept,The Year of the Dragon 2012 is a big year for births,From 2011 to 2013, the number of births in Shanghai was 18.00,22.61,19.62 million, Beijing born population of 19.1、22.4、21.Six thousand, all with a bulge in the year of the Dragon。And 2018 is the year that a large number of people born in 2012 are enrolled in school, so at the beginning of the year, I saw some people complain that they pay millions of annual taxes to the Beijing government, but their children can not go to school in Beijing, so two or three years ago, parents of many children in Shanghai went to the government to protest that there is no kindergarten to go to。

Many private kindergartens have seen great growth in recent years, some of which have been implicated in child abuse scandals。The price of having a baby dragon is huge,Some worry that when their children are two or three years old, they begin to look around for suitable school district housing and spend a lot of money to buy it。Not only that, the pressure of children born in the year of the Dragon has always existed, and they face more fierce competition in the middle school entrance examination。

2015 is the year of the Sheep, the traditional concept of the zodiac is not a good year, it has become a fertility trough, corresponding, 2014 and 2016 formed two small baby peaks。In addition, coincining with the comprehensive implementation of the two-child policy in 2015 and the centralized birth of two children in 2016, the two factors combined to increase the birth population in Beijing by more than 50%.In 2015, less than 200,000 people were born in the year of the Sheep to 280,000 people were born in the year of the Monkey in 2016, so it is a big trouble for Beijing monkey babies to go to school, and many children born in Beijing are doomed to not be able to go to school in Beijing。In contrast, Shanghai was previously implemented due to the stricter implementation of the one-child policy in the southThe "two-child" policy has released more two-child birth intentions, and the 2016 baby boom in Shanghai was not as exaggerated as Beijing。

Anyway, for the kids inFor parents born after 2017, whether in Beijing, Shanghai or any other city, the future is a great sigh of relief。As the number of births declines, the concept of a degree will fade and admission will become easier。Of course, not everyone is happy about this, and it is accompanied by the cooling of the speculation of the school district house, and these industries of mother and child, early education, and K12 education will also queue up from prosperity to decline。


Aging is a commonplace in China。在Four years before the 2016 birth peak,In 2012, China has reached the labor force population inflection point,And every year sinceThe rate of decline is about 3-4 million, and by 2017, the cumulative reduction has exceeded the permanent population of an entire Shenzhen。Even more dramatic is the impending precipitous decline, with the labor force shrinking by more than 10 million people a year by 2023, the size of a megacity。

2012 was not a good year for the Chinese economy either。Steel and coal industry giants have been bankrupt, Wenzhou and Ordos housing prices collapsed, and more and more intense has the trend of spreading to the whole country, the future of soaring housing prices in Hangzhou, at that time, there was no shortage of prices nearly 50% of the real estate。The economic downturn was reflected in the financial markets, where share prices fell so low that the Securities and Futures Commission suspended the meeting as it approached, in order to maintain the stability of the indexIpos, in return, began to encourage financial innovation。

Today we know,Finance is essentially a zero-sum game of stocks and bonds,There is no innovation, and financial innovation is synonymous with financial fraud, right。Securities brokerages under the supervision of the CSRC have not created anything, but non-licensed financial institutions such as Internet finance have flourished under the banner of financial innovation, contributing to the future financial failure。

当然,What is the direct connection between the 2012 recession and the decline in the labor force, and more the legacy of the 2008 stimulus。If we're serious about going back to the source,Many of today's questions are reachableSince 2008, ten years of ups and downs have gone round and round, the problem has not been solved, people are old, and the labor force is gone。

For individuals, the effects of aging often erupt suddenly in the form of events。For example, if a parent's body has a problem on a certain day and a major malignant disease is detected, then from examination, treatment to post-care, it will be a laborious and costly thing。In the current domestic environment, contact with hospitalization, specialist consultation, surgery these things, more or less you know, test the family's contacts, patience and wallet。And this generation is mostly the only child, the pressure is often all on a person or a couple。I believe that many people will have friends around them because of their parents' physical reasons, making their entire life plan changed significantly。

At the beginning of the year, the circle of friends brushed the screen of "Beijing Middle-aged under the flu" recorded the father-in-law from the flu to pneumonia, from the clinic toICU, 29 days exhausted the family's energy and years of savings, and eventually Yin and Yang were separated。The article's popularity is due to the fact that many people feel the same, this kind of thing is likely to happen to them, and for most ordinary families, the shock of similar things will undoubtedly be much greater than that of the Beijing middle-class families in the article。

But if there is no event, the aging process is slow, the individual's perception of aging is very limited, and the soft knife does not feel pain, so that many people think that aging is not a big deal。


For society as a whole, the economic answer to ageing seems obvious。To maintain output, and even grow, in the face of a shrinking labor force, labor efficiency must be increased。And improve labor efficiency hasThree ways: technological progress, reduce losses, optimize the structure。Although it can be written seriously, it is all nonsense, because whether there is an aging problem or not, from the perspective of society as a whole, the higher the labor efficiency, the better, and all available methods have been used long ago。

Pragmatic Japanese know this truth, so there is no department for aging, only a department for reducing the number of children,The main task is to find a way to get people to have more babies。Another solution is to make people retire later, delaying the exit of the Labour force。However, the delayed retirement policy caused a lot of criticism when it was leaked in China, because people saw that the government did not care about whether people retired or not, but just wanted to pay later and less pension。

At the individual level, for the average person, if they have fewer children, they can only save。And the older the population, the more they need to save。Most people have come to realize that saving money is half the effort, and it is。From the perspective of society as a whole, money is a useless thing that cannot be eaten, used or produced if the savings of all the people in China are increasedZero is just adding another zero to the price。When labor is scarce, prices will rise even if there is no central bank to print money, and there is nothing to stop the central bank from printing money, or printing money like crazy。

To protect against currency depreciation, people are turning to real estate in the hope that holding property will reduce the impact of inflation。On the whole, this is naive thinking。Despite the rapid printing of money and the speed of building houses, China's total investment in real estate and the area opened and completed in real estate have maintained double-digit growth in most years。

So with a shrinking population and more and more houses, it is hard to imagine a future in which rich property can be exchanged for scarce Labour。按照In 2012, the real estate market differentiation theory, the third and fourth tier cities have long been surplus of houses, but the shed reform, PSL one, CDB tens of trillions of money to the real estate market, house prices in the third and fourth tier cities have long been surplus and rose several times after 6 years。

The developer and the original owner areThe transaction itself is not important to the society as a whole. It is just a redistribution of wealth. It is just that the real estate certificate changes its name and the house money changes its owner。

The higher the house price, the greater the price paid by the buyer, the higher the benefit of the seller。It is often mentioned that the value of real estate is increased, in fact, the value is not quantifiable, a set of property in Shanghai Jing 'an Temple, used to live is the residential value, used for commercial purposes is the production value, the residential value is comfortable to live in a prosperous business and convenient transportation, these have nothing to do with the price, it is impossible because of the unit price$5,000 goes up to $500,000, and you can become a fairy if you live there。With the subway around the building and the opening of a business district, even if the price is cut in half, the living value is also increased。

Therefore, when people refer to the increase in the value of real estate, they are actually only talking about the increase in price, but the land is still the same land, the house is still the same room, and the overall wealth of society will not increase because of the increase in price。There is an ironic joke that by selling half of Shanghai and buying the whole of Taiwan, China's semiconductor industry can advance by leaps and bounds, and if Shanghai house prices then double, selling a quarter will be enough。

Although the price of a single real estate transaction has nothing to do with the overall wealth of the society, for buyers, it is very important50,000 / flat or 100,000 / flat to buy a house, but it may be related to the level of consumption for a long time in the future, related to marriage and childbearing plans。Buying a house has become so important that, at a time when labor is in short supply, people are spending more and more energy discussing and researching houses。

The real estate market has long conveyed a rising signal, which is related to the system, related to the stage of economic development, related to the age structure of the population, related to the land finance caused by the tax distribution system, related to the excessive gap between the rich and the poor, related to the unbalanced distribution of real estate resources, and the systematization of risks in the financial system and the kidnapping of the central bank。This long-term rise has made the so-called property speculation groups full of profits。

However, the logic of real estate speculation has never worked in the first place。If you think that the class has solidified and the rich already have more and better houses, then the speculation of the house is expected to sell to the poorer class, and the expectation is that the poorer class will buy the house at a higher price, only the poorer class will get higher income growth, and this can only occur generally through higher inflation。

In the face of rising housing prices and financial operation mechanism, individuals are trappedPrisoner's dilemmaThey worry that by not participating in the army of buyers, hoarders and speculators, a financial system held hostage by real estate will eventually force the central bank to release water, and inflation will remain high, shrinking their money and savings。It should be said that this fear is not unnecessary。As a result, more and more people participate in the housing price, the higher and higher the risk of the financial system, which forces the central bank to release more water to boost the housing price, forming a vicious circle。

The price of the commodity determines the final distribution, and the result of the distribution guides people's economic behavior. The high real estate price leads more labor to the real estate and related financial industries, and the vast number of people's work actually revolves around the real estate。

If you look at it a little bit more, and you look at the actions of individuals as a whole, you see that China as a whole is actually trying to cope with aging by saving houses, and when there are enough houses, this saving is necessarily meaningless, and it is not helpful to deal with labor shortages at the social level as a whole。

In economic comparison and review most articles, for the last centuryThe depression in Japan in the 1990s often started from the Plaza Agreement in 1985, culminating in the Bank of Japan's continuous interest rate hikes to puncture the real estate and stock market bubbles. It seemed that the depression in Japan was caused by the United States, and it seemed that the Bank of Japan was acting willfully. The voiceover was that if the central bank did not operate so, Japan could avoid depression。This is a bad example of how central banks around the world are rarely actively trying to pop economic bubbles today。

Yet there is little written about why the BOJ did what it did, and why it dared to take on so much responsibility。In fact, before the Bank of Japan started, there was a big discussion about where Japan was going in the future, and the Japanese people at that time saw their trading houses in real estate, car companies in real estate, chemical plants in real estate, and the students of Tokyo University in real estate as soon as they graduated, and the whole people speculated in real estate。It was famously said that Japanese real estate could buy the entire United States。The Japanese say that this is not possible, Japan is a country with a lack of resources, only the house everyone has to drink the northwest wind, to build a country of manufacturing, science and technology。So the Japanese punctured the real estate bubble after realizing that saving houses alone would ruin the future of Japanese society。

Just as the price of real estate is merely a redistribution of wealth, the price of stocks has nothing to do with the wealth of society。Foxconn's share price on the secondary market is either10 pieces or 100 pieces, Foxconn will always be the same Foxconn, and assemble as many iphones as it needs。And relying on stock pension is even less reliable than real estate pension。

In fact,Whether it's currency, real estate, insurance or any other financial product,It's a zero-sum game for society as a whole,If it does not bring the optimization of resource structure,It is purely a consumption structure,But in the current political and economic environment,These consumption structures are thriving and getting bigger,Making dealing with ageing even more difficult。


Many people have already felt that the society as a whole has not only failed to develop in the direction of improving labor efficiency, on the contrary, internal friction has become more and more serious, the phenomenon of reverse elimination in various fields and industries is serious, and people who have lost their virtue and talent and become rich by shameless and cheating are not cases。What is even more worrying is that we seem to have lost the ability to correct mistakes and can only allow ourselves to drift further and further down the wrong path。

China's demographic crisis today is not without warning, nor is it without room for mitigation。早在In 2000, the results of the National Bureau of Statistics' population sample survey showed that the total fertility rate in that year was only 1.22, already well below what is needed for generational change.1。Faced with this data, the National Health and Family Planning Commission that year believed that there was a large amount of underreporting and raised the total fertility rate to 1.8, so that the population calculation, relevant policy planning, including the United Nations report in the following decade are based on the total fertility rate 1.8走。

According to the sixth census in 2010, the fertility rate that year was only 1.18, close to the statistics of 2000, and far from the figures of the Health and Family Planning Commission。In 2013, when the second child was implemented, the population problem was already a crisis, and some experts and scholars began to call for birth control。

However, China is the mostZhai Zhenwu, a "top" demographic expert, president of the China Population Society, director of the Population and Development Research Center at Renmin University of China, and winner of the China Population Prize, wrote publicly that "if the two-child policy is fully implemented, China's annual peak birth rate will reach 49.95 million, and the total fertility rate will reach 4 million..5”。In July 2014, health and Family Planning Commission officials also adopted Zhai's data at a press conference, believing that if the two-child policy is fully implemented, more than 90 million additional children will be born。

The fact pops in the face that the birth population isThe peak in 2016 did not touch 18 million, and it has begun to decline in 2017。But in such circumstances, in March 2017, the Health and Family Planning Commission still publicly stated at a press conference that China's fertility situation was "fully in line with the forecast", and China has no shortage of population, and there is no shortage in the next 100 years。

Not only are there obvious mistakes that go uncorrected and unaccountable, but some people prosper because of them。Are we really gonna live in"There is no right or wrong, only interests of the adult world"?You know, in this kind of world, most people are doomed。


According to Tsinghua's China Pension Development ReportIn 2015, the cumulative amount of urban workers' basic pension insurance individual accounts was 4714.4 billion yuan, while the cumulative balance of urban workers' pension insurance funds in that year was only 3,534.5 billion yuan, which has been about 1.A $2 trillion difference。The pension amount is the base plus the personal account amount, so the actual pension shortfall is greater than this number。15 years later, no one mentioned the number, which is probably astronomical。

Basic pension transfer payments from the central government to local governments,The figure for 2017 was 5,858.8 billion, the 2018 budget has reached 6,696.5.6 billion, which means,I used to rely on local government pensions, and some places have been unable to pay them,It depends on the central government670 billion to pay pensions to retired workers in these places。This number will also increase year by year。

At the end of last year, the medical insurance fund was in emergency, medical insurance control costs, many drugs could not be prescribed, and major hospitals were required to pick cheap consumables, and ordinary silk could be used for surgery without using high-price sutures such as protein lines, and some operations were postponed。Although the direct responsibility lies with the social security fund, it also reflects the overall situation from the sideFinancial dilemma

Neither the local government nor the central government is doing too well。Given the rapid increase in government spending, it is impossible for tax cuts to be substantial, and the large reduction in personal income tax that we all hope for is not in line with fiscal reality。Local land finance is not a permanent solution,In some extreme places, urban construction has been basically completed, the population is stable or even negative growth, and there is no need to increase the construction land。If local governments do not borrow maliciously, they must find another source of revenue,The central government's prescription is real estate tax。

In the later official statements on the real estate tax, it is emphasized that the real estate tax is not for regulating real estate, but mainly for fiscal revenue。In fact, the whole of China is resisting the real estate tax, even if it is local fiscal revenue, local governments are reluctant to levy it, because the real estate tax is the channel, and the local government now needs the most is the bucket of water that land transfer money。Even so, if you don't print money into hyperinflation, real estate taxes will always have to be levied in the long run。

Some friends around me believe that even if the real estate tax is levied, it will not be levied on their own heads, which is too optimistic。The real estate tax is used to solve the problem of fiscal revenue, if the assets and income of the top few percent or even a few thousand people do not contribute, then only the richest group of massive bleeding, can fill the fiscal hole。

The real estate tax will not be collected for a while, and the debt crisis is already on the rise。According to the data,From January to May 2018, the national real estate sales and real estate prices were hot to break records, but debt defaults are one after another, and housing prices are rising and so, if housing prices begin to fall, the situation is unimaginable。Everyone is once again looking to central banks to come to the rescue。The central bank's embarrassment is that, while it can ignore inflation, rising house prices and rising leverage, its core constrained foreign exchange reserves are not in a healthy state。

So far in 2016, the central bank has not been able to find the opportunity to slim down to offset the impact of the decline in foreign exchange reserves, on the contrary, the market has become more and more dependent on the central bank's water release, and the balance sheet has become more and more bloated。By this year,A wave of bond defaults has once again declared a liquidity crisis,And the central bank needs to gain room for monetary policy maneuvering,It would be impossible to force exchange rates,The renminbi has experienced a rapid depreciation,The market interpreted it as "abandon the exchange rate to protect housing prices".,In fact, the central bank may not be so concerned about house prices,The focus is on preventing bond defaults from becoming systemic financial risks。

But even if central banks abandoned exchange rates altogether, systemic risks to the financial system could only be delayed, not eliminated。For central banks, money can always be printed, so any problem it solves is not a problem,So the problems we are facing now are not going to be solved by money。The essence of the economy is what people are doing, and if people aren't doing anything, you're not going to have a healthy and sustainable economy。At present, people invest in real estate or other financial assets as soon as they get their money, and then wait for households to buy them at a higher price. However, there are only so many people, in fact, there is no house, they just buy each other, blow up asset prices to insufficient liquidity, and then call on the central bank to release water。

Even leaving aside exchange-rate constraints, the cycle of the entire financial system is nothing more than,Central bank lending-->资产价格上涨-->信贷扩张-->扩张到极限或者遇到监管去杠杆-->流动性告急-->敦促Central bank lending,If the central bank does release water, it will simply be repeating a cycle that has been repeated many times over the past decade。After each cycle, the water requirements get bigger and bigger Central bank assets and liabilities diverge further and further。And there's a universal term for this kind of behavior like central banks kicking the can down the road"Time for space", but do we still have time?

In 10 years, the labor force has fallen six years from its peak, the birth population has also peaked and fallen, and the total population will also be negative, and our economy can withstand several such cycles?However, to break the cycle, historically, it was achieved through asset price reset, including real estate, stock price reset, including debt write-down, this process has a common name, called financial crisis。


When times are bad, people like to gamble。

There are a lot of people involved in gambling in this year's World Cup, and when the group stage was cold, everyone joked about meeting to the rooftop。The road of hard work and wealth can not go, some people calculate, in this life to be able to buy a favorite house, have to go to work since the Tang Dynasty, and they are willing to throw away the opportunity to make a fortune。

Not only that, if you don't find some opportunity to make a fortune, good and honest people can easily feel anxious and guilty, because there are many public accounts that stimulate everyone all day long, such as "Are you still living on a dead salary??", "Can't give her what she wants to say love her", "peers have put you far away", the end of the text are allp2p and all kinds of investment advertising。Occasionally the title like chicken blood text "society in the elimination of people who do not learn" point into a look is to teach you how to do his family micro business。

In the early years, I used to tell people not to goA-share gambling, and then it turns out that if people don't go to A-share gambling, they will go elsewhere to gamble, anyway。And are not called gambling, called investment, but also to learn a lot of technical analysis, by reading soft articles to learn new economy and new technology, feel that they are very hard, will soon stand in the next era of the tuyere。Even, some are not even called gambling, there is a chance to win to call gambling, no chance to win called cheated。

What's a scam basically like now, is you know it's a scam, but the bureau makes you believe that more people will fall for it in the future, thereby benefiting you, but for the bureau, it's really just counting on your money in the first place。Sometimes I say that this is a bureau, someone will jump out and scold: it deserves you to make money in your life。

Later, I thought about it, for the person who has entered the game, on the one hand, he still expects the new person behind him to enter the game to break the trap for him, on the other hand, the truth and reality may not matter at all, which is the last thought in a desperate situation。In fact, I know a few people who make a lot of money, luck factors do affect a lot, but as the saying goes"One life two luck three feng shui", light luck pure gambling fortune I just heard, have not seen。

Those who bet A little bigger on A share are basically those who made some money at the beginning of the bull market, and if they just started to speculate in the stock market and ran into a bear market loss, some people will not play。Earn money and taste the sweetness, put more wealth into it, the vast majority of people will soon be tied up, a set of several years, during which they will swear 1001 times, after the release of the set, they will no longer stock。There are often things out of the trap, quit the stock market people have not seen a few。

To say something politically incorrect, it is not known how much of the Chinese addiction to gambling and the Russian addiction to alcohol is due to genetic factors, but the environmental influence is also clear。As a country that is not far from the agricultural society, I do not know how much we know about the living conditions of agricultural producers, which is to rely on the day to eat a living, from deciding what to plant this year is a gamble, gambling that the weather is good, gambling that the harvest is good, but also gambling that the market is good next year, so the rural gambling wind is more bright。


2018年,People born in 1987 are 31 years old,State pensions are already trillions of dollars short,They may even be running out of money,The health insurance fund will not be able to prescribe drugs at the end of the year;The year 2018,Those born in 1987 are 31 years old,We don't have a relief system yet,There is no error correction mechanism,There is not even a personal bankruptcy system under the wave of debt defaults。

所谓"Old before rich", the rich here does not mean that there is money or no money, how expensive the house, but the real social wealth - clean air, fairness and justice, beautiful environment, live and work in peace, and institutional protection, which we are very lack。

At this turning point, and at the time when the people born at the peak of the population still have the last breath of vitality, let's create more social wealth, okay?

Sorry to write too long, you should be very tired, but let me just say a few words:

I have a dream that one day we can let good be rewarded with good, evil with evil, survival of the fittest。

I have a dream that people will be able to do the work they love, instead of going to work every day feeling heavier than going to their graves。People can make a decent living and live in a decent house with their own salary and small business, rather than being forced to chase after various opportunities to make a fortune。

I have a dream where people look forward to the future instead of worrying。

I have a dream that people can really think of each other, instead of cheating。

I have a dream that we can make this place good, both in the natural and social environment Instead of trying to emigrate to another country。After all, if I was born and raised here9.6 million square kilometers without shelter, where else in the world would there be shelter。(转)